If true this is good news

The Malaysia Sun (of all places) reports on the situation in Pakistan:

Pakistan's military claims it has regained control over the restive Swat Valley in the northwest, and said up to 220 pro-Taliban militants had been killed since late October.

Chief army spokesman Major-General Waheed Arshad has said the militants have vacated the Swat area and running towards the western mountains,

The offensive began when the government sent additional troops to the scenic Swat valley, to rein in around 5,000 armed followers of radical Muslim cleric Maulana Fazlullah, who is fighting to impose strict Islamic law.

The new head of Pakistan's military

The Christian Science Monitor describes the new head of Pakistan's military, General Ashfaq Kiyani, 55, formerly the head of the country's Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency:

"Musharraf chose him as someone who is loyal and also professionally acceptable to the rest of the Army," says Ikram Sehgal, editor of the Defence Journal. "He has a clean and solid reputation."

As the report goes on to say:

"Musharraf inherited the situation," says Mr. Sehgal, referring to Pakistan's involvement in the US-backed war on terrorism that followed America's invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. "But Kayani can't afford to toe anyone's line unconditionally," he says. The expectation from within the Army and popular opinion will require the general to restore order in the frontier region – to succeed where Musharraf effectively failed.

Kayani may reconfigure the counter-terrorism strategy, which has produced mixed results under Musharraf. "From some of the statements he's made," says Masood, "it seems he's inclined to using economic and political strategy in the tribal areas," instead of force.

That sounds like a plan. Note this interesting description of Gen. Kiyani in today's Financial Times:

Friends describe him as an apolitical chain smoker and golfer with more of a passion for military strategy than for acrimonious politics.

“Unlike other generals, Kiyani has deliberately kept a low profile,” said a western diplomat. “You hardly see him at social gatherings and when you do, the chat is more about the weather.”

Some data on Iraq's foreign fighters and insurgents

According to the New York Times, the majority of the foreigners are Saudi or Libyan:

Saudi Arabia and Libya, both considered allies by the United States in its fight against terrorism, were the source of about 60 percent of the foreign fighters who came to Iraq in the past year to serve as suicide bombers or to facilitate other attacks, according to senior American military officials...

American officials now estimate that the flow of foreign fighters was 80 to 110 per month during the first half of this year and about 60 per month during the summer. The numbers fell sharply in October to no more than 40, partly as a result of the Sinjar raid, the American officials say.

Saudis accounted for the largest number of fighters listed on the records by far — 305, or 41 percent — American intelligence officers found as they combed through documents and computers in the weeks after the raid. The data show that despite increased efforts by Saudi Arabia to clamp down on would-be terrorists since Sept. 11, 2001, when 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi, some Saudi fighters are still getting through.

Libyans accounted for 137 foreign fighters, or 18 percent of the total, the senior American military officials said. They discussed the raid with the stipulation that they not be named because of the delicate nature of the issue....the third-largest source of foreign fighters was Yemen, with 68. There were 64 from Algeria, 50 from Morocco, 38 from Tunisia, 14 from Jordan, 6 from Turkey and 2 from Egypt.

Most of the fighters smuggled by the cell were believed to have flown into Damascus Airport, and the rest came into Syria overland through Jordan, the officials said.

What is this based on? The Times reports:

The data come largely from a trove of documents and computers discovered in September, when American forces raided a tent camp in the desert near Sinjar, close to the Syrian border. The raid’s target was an insurgent cell believed to be responsible for smuggling the vast majority of foreign fighters into Iraq.

The most significant discovery was a collection of biographical sketches that listed hometowns and other details for more than 700 fighters brought into Iraq since August 2006....the trove found in Sinjar is so vast and detailed that American officials believe that the patterns and percentages revealed by it offer for the first time a far more precise account of the personal circumstances of foreign fighters throughout the country.

Compare these numbers to the over 25,000 insurgents that sit in detention centers in Iraq:

Of those, only about 290, or some 1.2 percent, are foreigners, military officials say.

According to the Times:

Some American officials also believe that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown insurgent group that claims a loose allegiance to Osama bin Laden, may by itself have as many as 10,000 members in Iraq.

About four out of every five detainees in American detention centers are Sunni Arab, even though Sunni Arabs make up just one-fifth of Iraq’s population. All of the foreign fighters listed on the materials found near Sinjar, excluding two from France, also came from countries that are predominantly Sunni.

The Times duly notes an important distinction:

American military and diplomatic officials who discussed the flow of fighters from Saudi Arabia were careful to draw a distinction between the Saudi government and the charities and individuals who they said encouraged young Saudi men to fight in Iraq. After United States officials put pressure on Saudi leaders in the summer, the Saudi government took some steps that have begun to curb the flow of fighters, the officials said.

As to why so many Saudis are entering Iraq's fight, here's how the Times puts it:

...senior American military officials said they also believed that Saudi citizens provided the majority of financing for Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. “They don’t want to see the Shias come to dominate in Iraq,” one American official said.

The military was also careful to point out the countries that aren't supplying fighters - or fighters in numbers that had been previously believed:

As recently as the summer, American officials estimated that 20 percent came from Syria and Lebanon. But there were no Lebanese listed among the Sinjar trove, and only 56 Syrians, or 8 percent of the total.

American officials have accused Iran, the largest Shiite nation in the Middle East, of sending powerful bombs to Iraq and of supporting and financing Shiite militias that attack American troops. They also contend that top Iranian leaders support efforts to arm Shiite fighters.

But whatever aid Iran provides to militias inside Iraq does not seem to extend to supplying actual combatants: Only 11 Iranians are in American detention, United States officials say.

Here's another reason why the Sinjar cell raid was important:

After the raid on the Sinjar cell, the number of suicide bombings in Iraq fell to 16 in October — half the number seen during the summer months and down sharply from a peak of 59 in March. American military officials believe that perhaps 90 percent of such bombings are carried out by foreign fighters. They also believe that about half of the foreign fighters who come to Iraq become suicide bombers.

It's too early to get hopeful, however:

“We cut the head off, but the tail is still left,” warned one of the senior American military officials, discussing the aftermath of the Sinjar raid. “Regeneration is completely within the realm of possibility.”

Can the tribes be counted on in Pakistan too?

They turned out to be our most reliable allies in Iraq, why wouldn't they in Pakistan too?

Apparently the U.S. military is on the same wavelength. The New York Times reports:

A new and classified American military proposal outlines an intensified effort to enlist tribal leaders in the frontier areas of Pakistan in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, as part of a broader effort to bolster Pakistani forces against an expanding militancy, American military officials said.

This makes sense to me because if reports are true that Al Qaeda is no longer just the grateful guest in these parts, but is doing its usual thing, terrorizing the girls, etc. then the tribes have to be figuring out who these people are. The tribes may not watch CNN or even Al-Jazeera, but given the fact they've maintained their independence up to this point in history, I find it hard to believe that they would suddenly be thrilled about having to bend over for Al Qaeda.

Time will tell. But were I involved in the decision here, this would be my plan. To me too many people in the conventional Pakistani forces are drawn from the same class Al Qaeda is: the privileged but bored, those who are yearning for more power.

More good news from Iraq

From the New York Times via the blogger who tries to bring you the good news about human endeavor (yes, that would be me):

The Iraqi government on Saturday credited Iran with helping to rein in Shiite militias and stemming the flow of weapons into Iraq, helping to improve the security situation noticeably.

As the report continued, just as widely suspected it does seem to have been that baby-faced cleric who was behind most of the violence:

Speaking about Iran, he said that that government had helped to persuade the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr to ask his Mahdi militia to halt attacks. Mr. Sadr ordered his militia to stop using weapons in early September, and officials say that the militia’s relative restraint has helped improve stability. They say it also seems to have helped decrease the frequency of attacks with explosively formed penetrators, a powerful type of bomb that can pierce heavy armor...

Since Mr. Sadr gave his order in mid-September, the numbers of unidentified bodies found on the streets of Baghdad daily have rarely exceeded a half dozen. When his militia was more active, there were often 30 or more unidentified bodies found daily.

The Times says the U.S. military has give similar indications in recent days that Iran is being helpful as opposed to harmful in Iraq.

Thus speaks former Israeli spy chief

Washington Post's David Ignatius reports on what former head of Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, Efraim Halevy told him in a recent interview:

The gist of his message is that rather than constantly ratcheting up the rhetoric of confrontation, the United States and Israel should be looking for ways to establish a creative dialogue with these adversaries.

Ignatius reminds the reader that Halevy might have some idea of what he is talking about, having served almost 40 years in the Israeli intelligence service, retiring in 2003 after five years as Mossad's director. As Ignatius writes:

He managed Israel's secret relationship with Jordan for more than a decade, and he became so close to King Hussein that the two personally negotiated the 1994 agreement paving the way for a peace treaty.

According to Ignatius, now:

Halevy suggests that Israel should stop its jeremiads that Iran poses an existential threat to the Jewish state. The rhetoric is wrong, he contends, and it gets in the way of finding a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear problem.

"I believe that Israel is indestructible," he insists. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may boast that he wants to wipe Israel off the map, but Iran's ability to consummate this threat is "minimal," he says. "Israel has a whole arsenal of capabilities to make sure the Iranians don't achieve their result." Even if the Iranians did obtain a nuclear weapon, says Halevy, "they are deterrable," because for the mullahs, survival and perpetuation of the regime is a holy obligation.

Rather than taking as Ignatius says "Ahmadinejad's fiery rhetoric" as evidence of Iran's capability of becoming an existential threat to Israel, Halevy says it's just the opposite.

"I believe that behind their bombastic statements there is a desperate fear that they are going down a path that would have dire consequences," he says. "They don't know how to extricate themselves. We have to find creative ways to help them escape from their rhetoric."

As for Syria, Ignatius writes:

Halevy takes a similarly contrarian view about Syria. "Damascus is now ripe for peace negotiation," he says. He argues that the Syrians are signaling their interest in such a negotiation and that the details of an agreement were worked out during extensive talks in the 1990s. The Syrian track might be a breakthrough, he argues, because an accommodation with Damascus might bring along the rest of the Arab world, lead to a settlement in Lebanon and undermine Syria's current alliance with Iran.

The onus doesn't fall completely on the West in Halevy's mind. Again, as Ignatius reports:

If the Syrians are serious about a dialogue with Israel, they should send a clear signal, Halevy advises. They should urge Hezbollah to release the Israeli prisoners it is holding or limit the activities of Hamas offices in Damascus. "Do a little," he urges the Syrians. "Start the ball rolling."

Is the situation in Pakistan as bad as Musharraf says it is?

Here's how the AP summed up Musharraf's reasons for declaring emergency law in Pakistan:

Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Sunday that Islamic extremists have paralyzed the government in Pakistan and failure to act would have endangered Pakistan's solidarity.

In a televised address to the nation, Musharraf defended his decision to impose emergency rule and abrogation of the Constitution because of the rising insurgency by the Islamists and judicial activitism by the country's apex Supreme Court.

"I consider that inaction at the moment is suicidal for Pakistan and I cannot allow the country to commit suicide," he said.

Musharraf did not mention if elections would be held by Jan. 15 next year on schedule and as demanded by Washington. He said, however, he is committed to take the country through the "transition to democracy."

He urged the Western countries particularly the United States to understand the reasons for which he was compelled to take the extraordinary measures.

"Kindly understand the criticality of environment inside and around Pakistan. Pakistan is on the verge of destabilization," he said.

"Please bear with us, please give us time," he said and asked his critics not to expect the same level of democracy that they had achieved over a period of many centuries.